Insights
Japan's Used-Car Exports to the UAE Fell 72% Through August 2026
Japan's used-car exports to the United Arab Emirates fell by about 72% in January–August 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier, according to Ministry of Finance trade data tallied by jumv.net. The UAE, which had been Japan's single largest used-car export market for years, slipped to ninth place with a share of just 4.1%. The cause is traceable to a specific event: the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February 2026, which paralysed the Dubai re-export hub that much of the region's used-car trade depends on.
The decline did not drag down Japan's overall used-car trade. Exporters rerouted vehicles that would have gone through Dubai toward Russia, Tanzania, New Zealand, Chile and other markets, and total used-car exports still rose 2.7% in the same period.
Data note: figures for January–August 2026 are year-to-date and preliminary; later revisions by the Ministry of Finance and JUMVEA may adjust the totals slightly.
From Top Buyer to Ninth Place: The UAE in Japan's 2025 Export Book
In 2025, the UAE was Japan's biggest used-car export destination, taking roughly 15% of all shipments. Ministry of Finance data cited by Reuters puts the 2025 total at about 224,000 units, while jumv.net's annual series records 253,897 units for the year, continuing a run of growth from 171,505 units in 2019 through 226,762 units in 2024. Separately, JUMVEA figures covering vehicles priced at ¥200,000 or more show 227,663 units for fiscal year 2025, up a modest 0.4%, suggesting the market had already begun to plateau before the disruption hit.
Data Table
| Period | Units |
|---|---|
| 2019 | 171505 |
| 2020 | 135932 |
| 2021 | 133233 |
| 2022 | 150734 |
| 2023 | 204503 |
| 2024 | 226762 |
| 2025 | 253897 |
Source: jumv.net, based on Japan Ministry of Finance trade statistics.
That trajectory reversed sharply in 2026. Year-to-date through August, the UAE received only 46,609 units, equal to 27.6% of the same eight months in 2025. JUMVEA's own count, which uses a slightly different valuation threshold, shows a close 46,501 units for the period and 2,418 units for August alone, just 12.8% of August 2025 volumes, with the UAE ranking 21st that month.
The March Collapse: Month-by-Month Shipments to the UAE
The break is visible month by month. Exports held close to 2025 levels in January and February, then fell off a cliff in March. According to JUMVEA data reported by Nikkei, March 2026 shipments to the UAE were 1,499 units, down 94% year on year and 92% from February, pushing the UAE to 26th place among destinations that month.
Data Table
| Period | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | 17158 | 17802 |
| Feb | 21135 | 18072 |
| Mar | 24071 | 1499 |
| Apr | 26201 | 966 |
| May | 21380 | 285 |
| Jun | 20925 | 2279 |
| Jul | 19348 | 3287 |
| Aug | 18953 | 2419 |
Source: jumv.net, based on Japan Ministry of Finance trade statistics; 2026 figures are year-to-date.
April and May were worse still, with volumes of 966 and 285 units respectively, barely 1-4% of the prior year's monthly figures. Total Japanese vehicle exports (new and used combined) to the Middle East fell 93.5% year on year in April to 4,444 units and 82.0% in May to 10,517 units, confirming that the disruption extended beyond used cars alone. In 2025 the UAE had been Japan's second-largest overall vehicle export market, worth ¥710.7 billion.
Why Hormuz Broke the Dubai Re-Export Hub
The proximate cause was military. US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026 brought the Strait of Hormuz close to closure, and insurers began listing the area as a war-risk zone. The UAE's main port, Jebel Ali, sits inside the Persian Gulf, so vessels calling there must pass through the strait regardless of their final cargo. Alternative ports on the Gulf of Oman side, such as Fujairah and Khor Fakkan, along with truck and rail links, had nowhere near the capacity to absorb the diverted volume.
The disruption reached as far as the shipping contracts themselves. Reuters reported that some Japanese shipping companies cancelled bookings outright, others proposed rerouting cargo through Pakistan or China, and at least one shipper asked exporters for a $5,000 deposit per car before it would commit to carrying a vehicle. The UAE's position as one of the world's largest re-export centres for used cars bound for Africa and the wider Middle East meant that roughly 400 dealers clustered around Dubai lost their primary supply line almost overnight, and some Japanese exporters simply stopped accepting UAE orders.
A Slow Recovery: June to August and Rising Average Prices
Shipments to the UAE have crept up from their May low but remain far below pre-crisis levels. June, July and August volumes of 2,279, 3,287 and 2,419 units were still only about 10-15% of the equivalent 2025 months. Nikkan Jidosha Shimbun reported that July exports to the UAE were down roughly 80% year on year even as Japan's total used-car exports that month fell a comparatively mild 6.9% to 140,011 units, the first overall decline in two months.
One notable shift is price. The average FOB export price per unit to the UAE, measured in units of ¥10,000, moved well above 2025 levels in several months of 2026, suggesting that the vehicles still making the journey skew toward higher-value stock rather than the volume segment that previously dominated the route.
| Month | 2025 (¥10,000) | 2026 (¥10,000) |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | 54.7 | 49.5 |
| Feb | 47.1 | 52.9 |
| Mar | 47.4 | 83.6 |
| Apr | 50.6 | 169.0 |
| May | 38.2 | 57.3 |
| Jun | 48.5 | 123.5 |
| Jul | 59.3 | 71.7 |
| Aug | 56.4 | 99.4 |
JUMVEA chairman Hiroshi Sato cautioned in June that regular sailings to Dubai would take time to restore even after any reopening of the strait, since many vessels remained stranded around Hormuz. He put the likely restoration period at two to three months once normal transit resumes, and noted that temporary unloading ports were already over capacity, while UAE buyers faced rising storage costs and high-risk freight surcharges on top of the shipping delay itself.
Where the Cars Went Instead: Russia, Tanzania, New Zealand and Others
Japan's overall used-car export volume did not fall with the UAE; it grew. Total used-car exports rose 7.2% in August to 144,447 units and 2.7% year to date to 1,137,821 units. Excluding the UAE from the comparison, the growth is far clearer: exports to the rest of the world were up 22.6% in August and 16.2% for the year to date, showing that exporters redirected supply rather than losing it.
Data Table
| Period | Units |
|---|---|
| Russia | 152464 |
| Tanzania | 117857 |
| New Zealand | 62192 |
| Chile | 60288 |
| Mongolia | 56728 |
| Kenya | 51659 |
| South Africa | 49347 |
| Sri Lanka | 47402 |
| UAE | 46609 |
| Malaysia | 35279 |
Source: jumv.net, based on Japan Ministry of Finance trade statistics.
Russia took the largest volume of the redirected trade, reaching 152,464 units in the eight months, up 131.6% on the same period of 2025, and remained Japan's top destination overall. Tanzania grew faster in relative terms, rising to 117,857 units in the Ministry of Finance count (168.4% of 2025); JUMVEA's parallel figures put Tanzania at 116,595 units (169.3%) and show it taking the number-two spot in August with 16,920 units, only 1,104 units behind Russia that month.
New Zealand also absorbed a meaningful share of the diverted supply, with 62,192 units for the year to date (126.5% of 2025) in Ministry of Finance data, close to JUMVEA's 62,140 units (126.6%). In August alone New Zealand took 7,294 units, up 16.9% year on year, ranking fourth that month, and the country ranked second for Japanese used hybrid vehicle exports in August with 4,021 units. Chile (60,288 units, 124.5%), Mongolia (56,728 units, 117%), South Africa (49,347 units, 122.5%) and Sri Lanka (47,402 units, 127.4%) all posted double-digit growth against 2025, underlining how broadly exporters spread the volume that had previously concentrated through Dubai.
What Exporters and Importers Should Watch Next
For exporters that built their business around the UAE's re-export function, the near-term outlook depends on two separate timelines: when the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal commercial transit, and how long afterward it takes shipping lines to restore regular sailing schedules. JUMVEA's own estimate of two to three months for the latter suggests that even a resolution of the underlying security situation would not bring UAE volumes back quickly.
In the meantime, the data points to a durable reallocation of trade rather than a temporary pause. Russia, Tanzania and New Zealand have absorbed large, growing volumes through 2026, and the rising average price per unit on the UAE route itself suggests that exporters still serving Dubai are prioritising higher-value stock over the bulk, lower-cost vehicles that once dominated the corridor. Exporters and importers tracking this market should watch the monthly JUMVEA and Ministry of Finance releases closely, since the UAE's ranking has moved from first to 21st or 26th in a matter of months and could move again once shipping lines normalise.
Sources
- jumv.net — 2026年にアラブ首長国連邦に輸出されたの台数 (Number of vehicles exported to the UAE in 2026)
- jumv.net — 2026年の中古車の輸出統計ランキング (2026 used-car export statistics ranking)
- jumv.net — 世界中に輸出される日本の中古車 (Japanese used cars exported around the world)
- Japan Carrier Co. — 2026年8月 中古車輸出統計｜144,447台、タンザニアがロシアに1,104台差
- Nikkei — 3月の中古車輸出、UAE向け9割減 ホルムズ海峡封鎖でハブ機能まひ
- Nikkei — 中東への中古車輸出打撃 UAE物流停止 国内で値下がりも
- Reuters — Lamborghinis stranded in Sri Lanka as war disrupts Asia's used-car trade
- JETRO — 中東の自動車動向（2）ホルムズ海峡封鎖、日本の自動車輸出に影響
- Japan Automobile Business Association (ABA-J) — 中古車の中東向け輸出、ホルムズ海峡開放でも課題山積
- Nikkan Jidosha Shimbun — 2026年7月の中古車輸出、2カ月ぶりマイナス UAE向けが8割減
Last updated: October 2026. Year-to-date figures for 2026 are preliminary and may be revised in later Ministry of Finance and JUMVEA releases.